ICT industry trends

Current Situation: The global shortage of key materials, such as semiconductors and rare earth metals, combined with supply chain disruptions, has led to rising prices. Hardware producers are facing higher costs for critical components, which is putting pressure on margins and product pricing.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, these material costs will remain high as demand continues to outstrip supply, particularly in sectors like semiconductors. This will push producers to look for alternative materials or develop more efficient manufacturing processes.

Challenges: Balancing cost control while maintaining product quality and innovation. Finding reliable and affordable alternatives to rare materials may take time.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: As consumer lifestyles become more mobile and technology-driven, there is a growing expectation for devices to be smaller, lighter, and more discreet without sacrificing performance. Wearables, foldable devices, and compact gadgets have become desirable as people seek convenience and portability.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, miniaturization will further accelerate, driven by social demand for devices that integrate seamlessly into everyday life, such as IoT-connected wearables or health monitoring gadgets. Hardware producers will continue to innovate, shrinking components without compromising functionality.

Challenges: Balancing miniaturization with maintaining battery life, durability, and performance, while meeting consumer expectations for powerful devices in smaller form factors.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Social

This year’s trend development

Summary: Adoption of circular economy models will drive design of reusable and recyclable hardware.

Current Situation: Governments and consumers push for circular economy to reduce e-waste, with some companies implementing programs.

Expected Development: In 4-6 years, more hardware producers will adopt circular design models with recycled and reusable materials.

Challenges: High costs of redesigning products and supply chains, and managing recycling processes.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Quantum-resistant encryption is critical to safeguard data against future quantum computing threats, which can break traditional encryption methods.

Current Situation: With quantum computing advancing, traditional encryption methods like RSA and ECC are at risk of being compromised. Research into quantum-resistant encryption algorithms is underway, with organizations like NIST working to establish new standards. While still in the early stages, some quantum-safe algorithms are being trialed by industry leaders to ensure data security in the post-quantum era.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, quantum-resistant encryption algorithms will be implemented in critical infrastructure, particularly in industries like banking, healthcare, and telecommunications, where data security is paramount. As quantum computing becomes more accessible, encryption standards will need to evolve rapidly to protect global communications.

Challenges: The cost of transitioning to quantum-resistant encryption is high, and integrating new algorithms into existing infrastructure is complex. Uncertainty remains over which quantum-safe algorithms will be most effective.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: The growing societal demand for sustainable infrastructure is pushing ICT providers to adopt greener practices and reduce their carbon footprints.

Current Situation: Consumers and governments are increasingly demanding sustainable practices from ICT providers, particularly in the energy-intensive operations of data centers and infrastructure. Many providers are responding by adopting energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy sources, while also seeking sustainability certifications.

Expected Development: By 2030, sustainability will be a core requirement for ICT infrastructure, with data centers and networks adopting renewable energy and green technologies as standard. Governments will continue to offer incentives, and companies will be expected to demonstrate their commitment to reducing environmental impact.

Challenges: Transitioning to sustainable practices requires significant capital investment, and smaller ICT providers may struggle to compete with larger organizations that have greater resources. Balancing cost efficiency with environmental goals is also a key challenge.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Social

This year’s trend development

Summary: The rising energy consumption of ICT infrastructure, particularly data centers, is becoming a major ecological concern, driving efforts to increase energy efficiency.

Current Situation: The rapid expansion of ICT infrastructure, particularly cloud services, has led to increasing energy consumption, with data centers responsible for a large share of global electricity use.

Expected Development: By 2026, the energy demands of ICT infrastructure will drive significant innovation in energy-efficient technologies and increased investment in sustainable power sources.

Challenges: Balancing energy efficiency with the growing demand for cloud services and IoT devices is challenging, especially as infrastructure scales. 

Time to Impact: 2-4 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Summary: In the future, AI will not just assist in coding but autonomously design entire software architectures, handling complex decision-making processes for systems integration.

Current Situation: AI has begun to automate elements of coding, but it remains largely reliant on human input for architectural decisions. The next frontier is AI-driven design of complete software systems, enabling more efficient, scalable, and optimized software architecture.

Expected Development: AI will evolve to design, test, and deploy software architectures autonomously, adapting systems in real-time to user needs and environmental conditions, revolutionizing large-scale software development.

Challenges: Ensuring AI-designed systems meet human-defined requirements, maintaining security and stability across AI-generated architectures, and preventing errors in complex autonomous decision-making.

Time to Impact: 8-10 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Stricter global data privacy regulations are shaping software development practices, forcing providers to prioritize compliance.

Current Situation: Global data privacy laws such as GDPR and CCPA have become standard in Europe and the U.S., with more countries adopting similar regulations. Software providers are facing increasing pressure to implement robust data protection mechanisms and ensure compliance with regional privacy laws, creating a need for privacy-by-design development.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, more countries will implement their own versions of privacy laws, making global data compliance a necessity. Software providers will need to integrate privacy controls at every stage of development, with built-in data encryption and user consent management features.

Challenges: Navigating the complexity of varying global data privacy regulations can increase operational costs and limit data flow across borders, especially for multinational companies.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Political

This year's trend development

Summary: Energy efficiency is becoming a key metric for software operations, with increasing emphasis on reducing the power consumption of software solutions, especially in large-scale operations like AI and machine learning.

Current Situation: AI and other data-intensive software operations consume large amounts of energy. There is growing recognition of the need to optimize these systems to use less power while maintaining performance levels.

Expected Development: Energy-efficient software will become a competitive advantage, particularly for large-scale operations. Providers will develop new algorithms and optimization tools to reduce the power consumption of AI, cloud services, and other data-heavy applications.

Challenges: Balancing energy efficiency with the need for high performance in software operations can be difficult, especially in industries like AI and machine learning that require significant computational power.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: Quantum cryptography will revolutionize transaction security by protecting e-commerce platforms from quantum computing threats.

Current Situation: Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, making traditional encryption methods vulnerable. Quantum-secured algorithms are in development to safeguard digital transactions against future quantum-based attacks. While still in the research phase, companies are testing quantum-resistant encryption methods for secure transactions, focusing on e-commerce and financial services where security is paramount.

Expected Development: Over the next 6-8 years, quantum-resistant encryption standards will become essential for e-commerce platforms. As quantum computers become more powerful, e-commerce providers will adopt quantum key distribution (QKD) systems to secure payment data, revolutionizing transaction security.

Challenges: High implementation costs, technical complexity, and the need to build compatible infrastructure present significant hurdles for widespread adoption.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Growing consumer demand for ethical and sustainable practices is reshaping the e-commerce industry, driving companies to adopt environmentally and socially responsible business models.

Current Situation: Consumers are increasingly prioritizing ethical practices, such as fair labor and eco-friendly packaging. E-commerce companies are responding by integrating sustainable packaging and transparency into their supply chains. Leading brands are adopting sustainable initiatives, but many smaller platforms face challenges due to the costs of implementation.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, sustainable packaging and carbon-neutral operations will become mainstream expectations for e-commerce providers. Companies will invest heavily in sustainability to meet consumer demands and comply with stricter regulations.

Challenges: Implementing sustainable solutions across global supply chains can be costly, and companies will need to balance sustainability goals with profitability, especially in competitive markets.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years
Potential Impact: High
STEEP Segment: Social/Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: E-commerce companies are transitioning toward sustainable packaging to meet consumer demand for environmentally responsible practices and reduce plastic waste.

Current Situation: Many e-commerce platforms are experimenting with sustainable packaging, such as recyclable, biodegradable, and reusable materials, to reduce their environmental impact. However, adoption is still limited due to the costs of implementing sustainable solutions across global supply chains.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, regulations and consumer pressure will drive the adoption of eco-friendly packaging on a wider scale. Companies will explore innovations like plant-based materials and circular economy models to reduce their environmental footprint.

Challenges: High costs, supply chain disruptions, and maintaining product integrity during shipping are significant challenges for e-commerce companies transitioning to sustainable packaging solutions.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years
Potential Impact:  High
STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: 6G networks will revolutionize telecommunications with ultra-high speeds and low latency, enabling real-time immersive experiences.

Current Situation: 6G technology is in its early research phase, with companies like Nokia and Ericsson leading the way. It promises 100x faster speeds than 5G and ultra-low latency, essential for applications such as holographic communication, immersive VR, and IoT. Despite the ongoing global 5G rollout, initial experiments with 6G are focused on next-gen communication infrastructure.

Expected Development: In the next 6-8 years, 6G will become the backbone for high-demand sectors like telecommunication, healthcare, and entertainment, supporting real-time virtual experiences, AI-powered services, and automated systems. This will push telecom companies to invest heavily in infrastructure upgrades.

Challenges: Major challenges include high infrastructure costs, spectrum allocation, and the need for global standardization across regions. Governments and companies will also need to collaborate on addressing potential cybersecurity risks.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years
Potential Impact: Very High
STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: XR (AR, VR, MR) is transforming how users engage with media, creating highly immersive and interactive experiences in gaming, education, and entertainment.

Current Situation: XR technologies, especially AR and VR, are gaining traction in gaming and live events, while companies like Meta and Apple are investing heavily in immersive media experiences. Though still considered niche, XR is growing rapidly as a tool for deeper audience engagement.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, XR will expand into mainstream media consumption, with applications ranging from holographic broadcasts to interactive storytelling. Media providers will harness these tools to offer highly personalized and immersive experiences for their users.

Challenges: The high costs of XR hardware and the complexity of producing XR content could slow adoption, especially among smaller media providers.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year's trend development

Summary: Virtual economies are creating new revenue streams through digital goods and in-game purchases, revolutionizing monetization models in media and telecom.

Current Situation: Virtual worlds and online games are becoming increasingly monetized through in-game purchases, digital goods, and subscriptions. Platforms like Fortnite and Roblox have popularized the concept of virtual economies, allowing companies to generate significant revenue beyond traditional advertising and subscriptions.

Expected Development: In the next 4-6 years, virtual economies will expand further, with blockchain technologies enabling digital ownership verification and new monetization strategies. Media companies will capitalize on these opportunities by integrating digital goods into their offerings, creating entirely new business models.

Challenges: Regulation and legal concerns around digital currencies, ownership rights, and the environmental impact of blockchain-based economies could limit the speed of adoption.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years
Potential Impact: Medium
STEEP Segment: Economic

This year's trend development