Tech, Media and Telecommunications industry trends

Current Situation: The global shortage of key materials, such as semiconductors and rare earth metals, combined with supply chain disruptions, has led to rising prices. Hardware producers are facing higher costs for critical components, which is putting pressure on margins and product pricing.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, these material costs will remain high as demand continues to outstrip supply, particularly in sectors like semiconductors. This will push producers to look for alternative materials or develop more efficient manufacturing processes.

Challenges: Balancing cost control while maintaining product quality and innovation. Finding reliable and affordable alternatives to rare materials may take time.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: As consumer lifestyles become more mobile and technology-driven, there is a growing expectation for devices to be smaller, lighter, and more discreet without sacrificing performance. Wearables, foldable devices, and compact gadgets have become desirable as people seek convenience and portability.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, miniaturization will further accelerate, driven by social demand for devices that integrate seamlessly into everyday life, such as IoT-connected wearables or health monitoring gadgets. Hardware producers will continue to innovate, shrinking components without compromising functionality.

Challenges: Balancing miniaturization with maintaining battery life, durability, and performance, while meeting consumer expectations for powerful devices in smaller form factors.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Social

This year’s trend development

Summary: Photonic chips will boost data transfer rates by utilizing light instead of electrical signals.

Current Situation: Photonic computing is an emerging technology where chips process data using light instead of electrical signals, allowing for faster data transfer and reduced heat generation. Research into photonic chips is currently focused on applications in AI, telecommunications, and large-scale data centers, where massive amounts of data must be processed quickly and efficiently. While still largely in the research phase, early-stage prototypes are being tested by companies like Intel and IBM for specific high-performance tasks.

Expected Development: In the next 8-10 years, photonic chips will be commercialized and adopted in data-heavy industries. Their ability to process data at light speed will revolutionize fields such as machine learning, cloud computing, and telecommunication networks. As they reach maturity, photonic chips could replace electrical chips in large-scale data centers, providing a significant boost to performance and efficiency.

Challenges: Integrating photonic chips with existing silicon-based architectures is a major challenge, as is reducing production costs to make the technology economically viable for widespread use. Significant breakthroughs in material science are also needed.

Time to Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Quantum-resistant encryption is critical to safeguard data against future quantum computing threats, which can break traditional encryption methods.

Current Situation: With quantum computing advancing, traditional encryption methods like RSA and ECC are at risk of being compromised. Research into quantum-resistant encryption algorithms is underway, with organizations like NIST working to establish new standards. While still in the early stages, some quantum-safe algorithms are being trialed by industry leaders to ensure data security in the post-quantum era.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, quantum-resistant encryption algorithms will be implemented in critical infrastructure, particularly in industries like banking, healthcare, and telecommunications, where data security is paramount. As quantum computing becomes more accessible, encryption standards will need to evolve rapidly to protect global communications.

Challenges: The cost of transitioning to quantum-resistant encryption is high, and integrating new algorithms into existing infrastructure is complex. Uncertainty remains over which quantum-safe algorithms will be most effective.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: The growing societal demand for sustainable infrastructure is pushing ICT providers to adopt greener practices and reduce their carbon footprints.

Current Situation: Consumers and governments are increasingly demanding sustainable practices from ICT providers, particularly in the energy-intensive operations of data centers and infrastructure. Many providers are responding by adopting energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy sources, while also seeking sustainability certifications.

Expected Development: By 2030, sustainability will be a core requirement for ICT infrastructure, with data centers and networks adopting renewable energy and green technologies as standard. Governments will continue to offer incentives, and companies will be expected to demonstrate their commitment to reducing environmental impact.

Challenges: Transitioning to sustainable practices requires significant capital investment, and smaller ICT providers may struggle to compete with larger organizations that have greater resources. Balancing cost efficiency with environmental goals is also a key challenge.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Social

This year’s trend development

Summary: ICT providers are under increasing pressure to adopt carbon-neutral data center practices to meet environmental regulations and sustainability goals.

Current Situation: Data centers are energy-intensive, and as ICT infrastructure expands, so does its carbon footprint. Many providers are committing to sustainability by adopting energy-efficient designs, using renewable energy sources, and aiming for green certifications like LEED. Companies like Google and Microsoft are leading the way in carbon-neutral initiatives.

Expected Development: By 2030, most data centers will operate with carbon-neutral or low-emission technologies. The industry will shift towards renewable energy solutions like solar and wind, and implement advanced cooling systems to reduce energy consumption. Regulatory pressure and consumer demand for sustainable operations will drive this change.

Challenges: The transition to carbon-neutral operations requires significant upfront investment, and smaller providers may struggle to afford the necessary upgrades. Additionally, ensuring reliable access to renewable energy in regions with underdeveloped infrastructure can be a hurdle.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Summary: AI will autonomously design entire software architectures, optimizing software systems for scalability and efficiency.

Current Situation: AI has begun to assist in code generation, but it still largely relies on human input for architecture design. Research and development are focusing on how AI can handle complex decision-making processes, such as software architecture design and system integration. Early tools like GitHub Copilot are just scratching the surface of this capability.

Expected Development: Over the next 8-10 years, AI will advance to autonomously create and optimize complete software architectures, adapting systems based on real-time needs. This will drastically improve scalability, and efficiency, and reduce human error in complex software development projects.

Challenges: The primary challenges include ensuring AI-designed systems meet security and performance requirements, as well as managing the trust and transparency of AI decisions in mission-critical software architectures.

Time to Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Stricter global data privacy regulations are shaping software development practices, forcing providers to prioritize compliance.

Current Situation: Global data privacy laws such as GDPR and CCPA have become standard in Europe and the U.S., with more countries adopting similar regulations. Software providers are facing increasing pressure to implement robust data protection mechanisms and ensure compliance with regional privacy laws, creating a need for privacy-by-design development.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, more countries will implement their own versions of privacy laws, making global data compliance a necessity. Software providers will need to integrate privacy controls at every stage of development, with built-in data encryption and user consent management features.

Challenges: Navigating the complexity of varying global data privacy regulations can increase operational costs and limit data flow across borders, especially for multinational companies.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Political

This year's trend development

Summary: Green data centers, powered by renewable energy and energy-efficient designs, are transforming the environmental impact of cloud services and data storage.

Current Situation: Green data centers are emerging as a solution to the environmental impact of massive data storage. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are investing in renewable energy-powered data centers that reduce emissions and optimize energy consumption. These efforts are still expanding but represent a growing industry standard.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, green data centers will become mainstream, driven by the need for sustainable infrastructure. Providers will increasingly use renewable energy sources and innovative cooling techniques to reduce carbon footprints while maintaining high performance.

Challenges: The transition to green data centers requires significant upfront investment and technological innovation, particularly in optimizing cooling systems and renewable energy integration at scale.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: Quantum cryptography will revolutionize transaction security by protecting e-commerce platforms from quantum computing threats.

Current Situation: Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, making traditional encryption methods vulnerable. Quantum-secured algorithms are in development to safeguard digital transactions against future quantum-based attacks. While still in the research phase, companies are testing quantum-resistant encryption methods for secure transactions, focusing on e-commerce and financial services where security is paramount.

Expected Development: Over the next 6-8 years, quantum-resistant encryption standards will become essential for e-commerce platforms. As quantum computers become more powerful, e-commerce providers will adopt quantum key distribution (QKD) systems to secure payment data, revolutionizing transaction security.

Challenges: High implementation costs, technical complexity, and the need to build compatible infrastructure present significant hurdles for widespread adoption.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Growing consumer demand for ethical and sustainable practices is reshaping the e-commerce industry, driving companies to adopt environmentally and socially responsible business models.

Current Situation: Consumers are increasingly prioritizing ethical practices, such as fair labor and eco-friendly packaging. E-commerce companies are responding by integrating sustainable packaging and transparency into their supply chains. Leading brands are adopting sustainable initiatives, but many smaller platforms face challenges due to the costs of implementation.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, sustainable packaging and carbon-neutral operations will become mainstream expectations for e-commerce providers. Companies will invest heavily in sustainability to meet consumer demands and comply with stricter regulations.

Challenges: Implementing sustainable solutions across global supply chains can be costly, and companies will need to balance sustainability goals with profitability, especially in competitive markets.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Social/Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: E-commerce companies are transitioning toward sustainable packaging to meet consumer demand for environmentally responsible practices and reduce plastic waste.

Current Situation: Many e-commerce platforms are experimenting with sustainable packaging, such as recyclable, biodegradable, and reusable materials, to reduce their environmental impact. However, adoption is still limited due to the costs of implementing sustainable solutions across global supply chains.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, regulations and consumer pressure will drive the adoption of eco-friendly packaging on a wider scale. Companies will explore innovations like plant-based materials and circular economy models to reduce their environmental footprint.

Challenges: High costs, supply chain disruptions, and maintaining product integrity during shipping are significant challenges for e-commerce companies transitioning to sustainable packaging solutions.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: 6G networks will revolutionize telecommunications with ultra-high speeds and low latency, enabling real-time immersive experiences.

Current Situation: 6G technology is in its early research phase, with companies like Nokia and Ericsson leading the way. It promises 100x faster speeds than 5G and ultra-low latency, essential for applications such as holographic communication, immersive VR, and IoT. Despite the ongoing global 5G rollout, initial experiments with 6G are focused on next-gen communication infrastructure.

Expected Development: In the next 6-8 years, 6G will become the backbone for high-demand sectors like telecommunication, healthcare, and entertainment, supporting real-time virtual experiences, AI-powered services, and automated systems. This will push telecom companies to invest heavily in infrastructure upgrades.

Challenges: Major challenges include high infrastructure costs, spectrum allocation, and the need for global standardization across regions. Governments and companies will also need to collaborate on addressing potential cybersecurity risks.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: XR (AR, VR, MR) is transforming how users engage with media, creating highly immersive and interactive experiences in gaming, education, and entertainment.

Current Situation: XR technologies, especially AR and VR, are gaining traction in gaming and live events, while companies like Meta and Apple are investing heavily in immersive media experiences. Though still considered niche, XR is growing rapidly as a tool for deeper audience engagement.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, XR will expand into mainstream media consumption, with applications ranging from holographic broadcasts to interactive storytelling. Media providers will harness these tools to offer highly personalized and immersive experiences for their users.

Challenges: The high costs of XR hardware and the complexity of producing XR content could slow adoption, especially among smaller media providers.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year's trend development

Summary: Virtual economies are creating new revenue streams through digital goods and in-game purchases, revolutionizing monetization models in media and telecom.

Current Situation: Virtual worlds and online games are becoming increasingly monetized through in-game purchases, digital goods, and subscriptions. Platforms like Fortnite and Roblox have popularized the concept of virtual economies, allowing companies to generate significant revenue beyond traditional advertising and subscriptions.

Expected Development: In the next 4-6 years, virtual economies will expand further, with blockchain technologies enabling digital ownership verification and new monetization strategies. Media companies will capitalize on these opportunities by integrating digital goods into their offerings, creating entirely new business models.

Challenges: Regulation and legal concerns around digital currencies, ownership rights, and the environmental impact of blockchain-based economies could limit the speed of adoption.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Medium

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year's trend development