Aviation and Aerospace industry trends

Summary: Closed-loop manufacturing systems will minimize waste by recycling production byproducts back into the supply chain.

Current Situation: Aerospace manufacturers are piloting closed-loop systems where production waste is repurposed into new raw materials. This practice is still in its early stages, with limited implementation due to the high cost of setting up the necessary infrastructure. Current focus areas include the recycling of metal shavings, composites, and other production byproducts to reduce overall environmental impact and dependence on raw materials.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, adoption will expand as companies prioritize sustainable operations and governments introduce stricter emissions regulations. These systems will become standard in aerospace manufacturing, improving resource efficiency and aligning with global sustainability goals.

Challenges: Initial costs for infrastructure, developing efficient processes for waste-to-resource conversion, and ensuring consistent quality of recycled materials are significant barriers.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Morphing wing technology will enable aircraft wings to dynamically change shape for optimized aerodynamics during different phases of flight.

Current Situation: Current aircraft rely on fixed-wing structures or mechanical flaps for aerodynamic control. Morphing wing technology, tested in small-scale prototypes, has demonstrated the potential for significant improvements in lift, drag, and overall fuel efficiency.

Expected Development: Within the next 8-10 years, full-scale implementation of morphing wings will allow aircraft to adapt automatically to changing flight conditions (takeoff, cruising, landing), reducing fuel consumption and emissions while enhancing flight performance.

Challenges: Developing durable, flexible wing materials, ensuring the reliability of morphing mechanisms, and navigating rigorous airworthiness certification processes.

Time to Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Stricter emissions regulations are compelling aerospace manufacturers to adopt cleaner technologies and efficient processes.

Current Situation: International policies such as CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) are being reinforced by regional regulations targeting industrial emissions. Aerospace manufacturers are under growing pressure to align their operations with evolving environmental standards to avoid fines and restrictions.

Expected Development: In the next 2-4 years, stricter regulations will prompt manufacturers to accelerate the integration of emissions-reducing technologies, such as sustainable fuels and greener manufacturing processes. Compliance will be essential for market access and operational sustainability.

Challenges: High compliance costs, retrofitting existing facilities, and navigating multiple international standards with varying requirements.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Political

This year’s trend development

Summary: Enhanced small satellite capabilities are set to revolutionize space operations with cost-effective and agile deployments.

Current Situation: Miniaturization has led to a surge in CubeSats and microsatellites, which offer cost-effective solutions for space observation, communications, and research. These technologies, bolstered by advancements in electronics and lightweight materials, are widely used in Earth monitoring and low-orbit applications. Private and public space sectors are increasingly relying on these miniaturized technologies for mission diversification and cost efficiency.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, the integration of AI and advanced propulsion will enhance the autonomy and range of these satellites, enabling them to operate in swarms for more complex tasks such as real-time global coverage and collaborative missions. This will significantly expand their roles in planetary exploration and in-orbit data collection.

Challenges: Power limitations, communication constraints, and the durability of these smaller units in space conditions remain technological challenges. Addressing these requires further R&D investment.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Collaborations between government agencies and private firms are reshaping the funding and execution of space missions.

Current Situation: Public-private partnerships have become pivotal for advancing space exploration. Agencies like NASA and ESA are increasingly collaborating with private players to share financial risks and leverage innovative technologies. This trend has facilitated more ambitious projects, such as commercial space stations, satellite constellations, and deep-space exploration programs.

Expected Trend Development: In the next 2-4 years, these partnerships will grow stronger, leading to joint missions that push boundaries in space research and operational capacity. The private sector’s involvement will bring new technologies to market faster and make space more accessible through commercial services and tourism.

Challenges: Maintaining a balance between commercial interests and public benefit, alongside intellectual property and equitable distribution of technology, are significant challenges.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Political/Economic

This year’s trend development

Summary: Robotics and AI-driven systems are advancing to enable the extraction of resources from celestial bodies, reducing dependence on Earth.

Current Situation: Efforts in autonomous space mining focus on developing robotic systems capable of identifying and extracting minerals from the Moon and asteroids. These systems are designed to operate with minimal human intervention, paving the way for sustainable space exploration that leverages in-situ resources.

Expected Development: Over the next 8-10 years, advances in machine learning and robotics will lead to more sophisticated mining systems capable of processing resources for fuel and building materials directly in space. This will facilitate long-duration missions and support lunar bases.

Challenges: Significant technical challenges include navigating low-gravity environments, processing minerals in harsh conditions, and developing efficient autonomous systems. Additionally, regulatory and ownership rights over space resources remain a point of contention.

Time to Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological/Economic

This year’s trend development

Summary: Biometric verification will streamline check-in and boarding, enhancing security and operational efficiency.

Current Situation: Airports and airlines are increasingly deploying biometric tools, such as facial recognition and fingerprint scanning, to expedite passenger processing and reduce wait times. These systems are currently used in pilot programs and limited operations, showcasing their potential for widespread adoption in improving travel experiences.

Expected Development: In the next 4-6 years, integration with digital ID systems will become more advanced, allowing for a touchless and seamless passenger journey from check-in to boarding. This will greatly enhance security and convenience, driving more efficient airport operations.

Challenges: Privacy concerns, potential biases in recognition software, and compliance with data protection laws are key barriers to adoption.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Economic pressures are pushing airlines to modernize their fleets with fuel-efficient and low-emission aircraft.

Current Situation: Airlines are beginning to replace older aircraft with newer, more fuel-efficient models to reduce operating costs and comply with stricter environmental regulations. Investments are directed toward models that offer better fuel economy and align with sustainability goals, though this process is still in its early stages.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, airlines will accelerate fleet modernization efforts, prioritizing aircraft that meet environmental standards and offer long-term cost savings. This will likely involve significant capital investment and strategic planning to phase out older models. 

Challenges: High acquisition costs, long return on investment (ROI) periods, and potential supply chain disruptions could delay fleet upgrades, especially for smaller airlines.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year's trend development

Summary: Electrically powered aircraft will enable zero-emission travel and reduced noise pollution for short-haul routes.

Current Situation: Electric aircraft are in the prototype phase, showcasing potential for emissions-free short-distance travel. Startups and major aerospace players are running test flights, focusing on battery technology and infrastructure adaptations. The drive to adopt electric planes aligns with broader industry efforts to meet global sustainability targets.

Expected Development: In the next 6-8 years, battery advancements and regulatory support will lead to increased adoption of electric planes for regional routes. Infrastructure at smaller airports will adapt to support these aircraft, helping airlines offer more eco-friendly travel options.

Challenges: Battery limitations currently restrict flight range and payload capacity. Infrastructure upgrades at regional airports and certifications for new technologies pose further barriers.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year's trend development

Summary: Satellite-based ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast) systems enhance coverage, providing global air traffic visibility, especially in remote regions.

Current Situation: Traditional radar systems have limitations in covering vast and remote areas, leading to gaps in global air traffic visibility. Satellite-based ADS-B technology is being deployed to address these gaps, allowing for consistent, real-time tracking of flights. This system is already being used for transoceanic and remote region monitoring, improving safety and operational awareness.

Expected Development: Over the next 2-4 years, satellite-based air traffic surveillance will become standard for international air routes. This will enable real-time global monitoring, more efficient route planning, and enhanced safety through better coordination and situational awareness.

Challenges: High costs of satellite infrastructure and ensuring international cooperation and standardization present significant barriers to widespread adoption.

Time to Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Summary: Advanced technologies designed to optimize air traffic management are expected to reduce operational costs and improve efficiency.

Current Situation: Innovations such as AI-driven scheduling tools and satellite-based navigation are already helping air traffic controllers reduce delays and manage fuel consumption. These technologies are in the pilot or early implementation phases, showing promising initial results in terms of cost savings and smoother operations.

Expected Development: In the next 4-6 years, full-scale adoption of optimization technologies will lead to more streamlined air traffic management, lower operational expenses, and greater economic output for the aviation industry. This will be crucial for handling increasing traffic volumes efficiently.

Challenges: Integrating new technologies with legacy systems, ensuring consistent funding for upgrades, and overcoming regulatory hurdles are ongoing concerns.

Time to Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year's trend development

Summary: Platforms to manage both commercial aircraft and autonomous drones are emerging to ensure seamless mixed-use airspace management.

Current Situation: The rise of drones for logistics, surveillance, and other applications is challenging traditional air traffic systems. Initial integration systems are being developed to incorporate drone data into existing air traffic management frameworks, allowing for coordinated operations and reduced risks of airspace conflicts.

Expected Development: In the next 6-8 years, these platforms will evolve to autonomously manage mixed-use airspaces, optimizing traffic routes for both manned and unmanned aircraft. This will be key to supporting the growth of urban air mobility and future airspace needs.

Challenges: Regulatory barriers, public safety concerns, and developing robust collision-avoidance protocols are key challenges that need to be addressed for large-scale implementation.

Time to Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year's trend development